Market news
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Japan and Trump reaffirm broad cooperation on security and economy
Japanese official Takaichi stated that after discussions with President Trump, both sides confirmed continued high-quality cooperation across security and economic areas based on a strong trust relationship.
Brent Oil Outlook: Bears May Pause Above 200-Day MA
Brent crude fell over 15% in four days amid a US-Iran peace deal narrative, approaching levels seen at the start of the recent move. The 200-day moving average could provide support for a brief consolidation.
Fed Meeting May Mark Formal End of Easing Bias, Markets Could Be Disappointed
Today's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to signal the formal death of the easing bias, as resilient US economy and rising inflation pressures remove the case for rate cuts. Markets may be disappointed by a hawkish stance.
US Gold Reserves: Fort Knox Holds 60% of Treasury Stockpile
Fort Knox in Kentucky holds approximately 147.3 million troy ounces of gold, representing about 60% of total US government gold reserves. Other major depositories include West Point and Denver.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Holds Rate Steady at 3.5%-3.75% in First FOMC Meeting
At his first FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained a wait-and-see approach, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.
New Zealand Dollar Weakens to 0.5820 Amid Pre-Fed Risk Aversion
NZD/USD fell 0.24% to 0.5820 as investor confidence hits its lowest since 2023 ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.
Sweden May CPIF Inflation Forecast at 2.6% as Oil Drops Below $80
Sweden's CPIF inflation forecast for May stands at 2.6% with constant taxes, while oil prices have fallen below $80 per barrel amid easing Middle East tensions, though geopolitical risks persist.
BoJ Hikes Rate to 1.0% but Yen Continues to Fall
Despite the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.0%, the Japanese yen remains under pressure as analysts say the hike is insufficient to trigger a sustained recovery.
ECB's Sleijpen Says Repeat of 2022 Inflation Less Likely but Risk Remains
European Central Bank policymaker Olaf Sleijpen indicated that a repeat of the 2022 inflation spike is less probable, but the possibility cannot be entirely dismissed.
Fed voters show hawkish tilt, limiting scope for Warsh's rate-cut push
According to FXStreet's Speech Tracker, most FOMC voters are hawkish or leaning hawkish, with 6 of 11 scoring 6.0 or higher. This suggests strong internal resistance to aggressive easing, even if nominee Warsh pushes for cuts.
Low FX Volatility Ahead of Fed Decision as Traders Remain Skeptical on Iran Deal
FX trading activity was extremely thin on the day before the Fed meeting, with traders showing skepticism despite seemingly favorable news on the Iran war. Uncertainty over the Iran deal and other factors kept markets subdued.
Canadian Dollar Holds Near Recent Lows as Oil Slump, Fed Outlook Weigh
USD/CAD trades around 1.4010 on Wednesday, gaining 0.10% on the day. The pair maintains a bullish tone as the Canadian Dollar remains under pressure from falling oil prices and positioning ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision.
USD/CAD Range-Bound as Markets Eye Canadian, US Data - NBC
Analysts at National Bank of Canada note that USD/CAD remains range-bound, with moves driven by shifting expectations for Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policies amid upcoming data releases.
US Retail Sales Surge 0.9% MoM in May, Beating Expectations
US retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month in May to $763.7 billion, exceeding the 0.5% forecast and accelerating from the prior month's 0.5% gain. Year-over-year sales were up 6.9%.
Nvidia Bond Sale Noise Masks Chart Setup
Nvidia's $25 billion bond offering and renewed AI trade overheating debate dominate headlines, but the chart pattern offers a more measured signal.
US Gaming Associations Urge Senate to Ban Sports Prediction Markets Under GENIUS Act
The American Gaming Association, Indian Gaming Association, and Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers have called on the U.S. Senate to ban prediction markets linked to sports and gambling as part of the GENIUS Act, arguing they circumvent state laws and consumer protections.
Euro retreats below 1.1600 as Fed focus returns
The Euro fell moderately against the US Dollar on Wednesday, giving back recent gains as markets turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's next moves.
Societe Generale Favors Short USD/JPY on Dovish Fed Risk
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes recommends short positions on USD/JPY, arguing that a dovish Fed outcome would support the trade, while recent G10 policy shifts have not caused significant FX moves.
UK CPI Stays at 2.8% in May, Misses Consensus and BoE Forecast
UK headline CPI held at 2.8% year-on-year in May, below both Bloomberg consensus and the Bank of England's April MPR projection, while core inflation edged up. Societe Generale notes services strength offset goods softness.
Fed Patience Caps Dollar Weakness – OCBC
OCBC strategist Sim Moh Siong says the US dollar is supported by the Fed's patient stance, with FX markets in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC. Falling oil prices alleviate inflation concerns but have limited room to weigh further on the greenback.
LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange to Launch LME-Listed Flat Steel Futures
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has signed an agreement with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) to launch an LME-listed futures contract offering exposure to the SHFE flat steel market for participants outside China.
Societe Generale: EUR/USD Range-Bound with Downside Bias to 1.12
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes sees EUR/USD stuck in a range with a downside bias toward 1.12, citing a lack of major FX moves from recent G10 central bank actions and deeper Eurozone GDP forecast cuts.
Gold Trades Sideways as Markets Await Fed Guidance, US-Iran Peace Deal
Gold (XAU/USD) is little changed around $4,332.60 on Wednesday as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance and ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations.
USD Range Trading Persists as Fed Holds Steady – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note the US economy shows resilient growth with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed on hold and USD range-bound. Market pricing still leans toward a rate hike in early 2025.