Market news
Crypto, stocks, forex and macro, aggregated for traders.
ECB Hikes Rate to 2.25% in First Move Since 2023, Hawkish Tone
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, its first rate hike since 2023, and delivered hawkish messaging, according to Deutsche Bank economists.
WTI Oil Falls for Second Day as US-Iran Deal Hopes Ease Tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its decline for a second straight day, trading near $82.90, as investors unwind defensive positions amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran deal that could reduce the risk premium tied to Hormuz Strait disruptions.
Iran: No Commitment on Strait of Hormuz in US MOU
Iran's state news agency IRNA reports that a memorandum of understanding with the US includes no commitments on managing the Strait of Hormuz. Future administration of the strait will be decided regionally via dialogue between Tehran and Oman.
India May CPI Rises 3.93% YoY, Misses 4% Estimate
India's annual consumer price inflation eased to 3.93% in May, below the market expectation of 4% but above the prior month's reading.
Gold Slides Nearly 3% Weekly, Breaks Below 200-Day MA
Gold fell close to 3% week-over-week, trading below its 200-day moving average despite a halt in airstrikes on Iran. Prices are now roughly 20% lower than their level at the start of the conflict.
Gold Holds Near $4,220 on US-Iran MoU Hopes, Mean Reversion to 20-Day EMA Seen
Gold price holds near $4,220 during European trading, extending Thursday's recovery on expectations of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Analysts suggest a mean-reversion move to the 20-day EMA is likely.
Silver (XAG/USD) Bulls Target $69.00 as Market Mood Improves
Silver (XAG/USD) is recovering losses during Friday's European session, trading in the mid-$67.00s as improved market sentiment supports bullish momentum toward the $69.00 target.
Polish Zloty under pressure as president blocks key reforms – Commerzbank
Commerzbank warns that President Karol Nawrocki's record number of vetoes, blocking legislation on crypto, tax and healthcare, is weighing on the Polish zloty. The bank expects obstruction to continue until 2027.
DAX Correction Deepens as Elliott Wave Signals More Downside
The DAX index faces deepening losses as it tests the support line of its impulsive channel from March lows. Elliott wave analysis suggests the current decline may be a leading diagonal, pointing to further downside.
USD Upside Persists on Resilient Data, Says BBH Analyst
Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad notes that while improving US-Iran relations briefly weakened the dollar, resilient economic data supports further USD gains.
US-Iran Deal on Strait of Hormuz Nears Signing in Geneva – Bloomberg
Bloomberg reports that US and Iranian officials are close to signing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a possible agreement by the weekend as G7 leaders prepare to meet.
BNY's Bob Savage Highlights Declining Cash, Elevated Valuations, Record IPO in U.S. Equities
BNY's Bob Savage analyzes U.S. equities using iFlow data, pointing to declining institutional cash balances, elevated valuations, and record IPO issuance.
Drafted US-Iran MOU Sparks Optimism, Aids SpaceX IPO
Optimism over a drafted memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is providing macro tailwinds that could benefit the potential SpaceX IPO, while European markets digest the latest ECB rate hike ahead of a more complicated policy decision in July.
Coinbase Launches AI Agent Service for Trading and Payments
Coinbase introduces Coinbase for Agents, allowing AI agents to execute trades and payments within user-set limits via the MCP protocol or CLI.
Nordea Sees Medium-Term Upside for EUR/USD
Nordea strategist Jan von Gerich argues the dollar has underperformed relative to historical patterns and expects a higher EUR/USD in the medium term, despite the pair remaining stuck between 1.15 and 1.16.
ECB Raises Rates by 25 bps, Calls It an Adjustment Not Start of Tightening Cycle
The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, describing the move as an adjustment rather than the beginning of a tightening cycle.
Silver Falls 0.17% to $67.26 on Friday
Silver prices edged lower on Friday, trading at $67.26 per troy ounce, down 0.17% from the previous close of $67.37, according to FXStreet data.
AUD Recovers Modest Losses Against USD, Lacks Follow-Through
The Australian Dollar reversed an intraday dip to the 0.7020 area and climbed to the top of its daily range during early European trading, though buying interest remained insufficient to sustain gains.
Societe Generale: INR Support via Capital Inflows, Not Tightening
Societe Generale notes the Indian government and RBI are relying on capital inflows to support the rupee rather than adopting tighter monetary policy.
ECB Hikes 25bp, Oil Prices Key to Dovish Outlook
The ECB delivered a 25bp rate hike as expected, but markets sought stronger forward guidance. Lower oil prices are acting as a dovish counterbalance, though renewed Iran tensions could push rates up.
AUD/USD Rebound Tests 0.7060 Resistance – UOB
AUD/USD's sharp rebound from 0.6979 to 0.7055 has room to extend toward 0.7060, but a clear break above this level is seen as unlikely near-term, according to UOB analysts.
Nomura Warns of USD Reversal Risks Despite Bullish Consensus
Nomura strategists note that while the US dollar’s bullish case is supported by strong data and Fed expectations, historical patterns around data surprises suggest downside risks ahead.
Markets Shift From Fear to Hope on Geopolitical Hopes
Global markets have moved from fear to hope as investors price in potential Middle East de-escalation, lower oil prices, and stronger equity momentum.
Iran: US MoU Needs Finalization by Relevant Authorities
Iran's Mehr news agency reported on Friday that the draft memorandum of understanding with the United States regarding a permanent peace deal requires finalization by relevant authorities.