Market news
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Rabobank: Canada's Fragile Economy in Technical Recession
Rabobank describes Canada's economy as fragile, with two consecutive quarterly contractions marking a technical recession, weighed down by weak investment and trade.
USD/CNH Slides Toward Multi-Year Low as Yuan Rides Trade Surplus
The Chinese yuan continues to strengthen against the US dollar, with USD/CNH approaching support at its June multi-year low. Brown Brothers Harriman attributes the move to broad dollar weakness and China's stronger-than-expected trade surplus, boosted by AI-related exports and semiconductors.
South Korean Authorities Announce Measures to Stabilize Won – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Charlie Lay reports that South Korean authorities have unveiled new measures to support the Korean Won, including tighter oversight of offshore FX derivatives, scrutiny of suspected misconduct, and expanded FX hedging by the National Pension Service through USD forwards.
GBP Rises Against JPY on BoJ Bond-Tapering Pause Report
The British Pound strengthened against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, supported by easing Middle East tensions and a Reuters report that the Bank of Japan is considering pausing its bond-tapering program.
Canadian Dollar Holds Near YTD Ceiling vs USD – Scotiabank
Scotiabank analysts note USD/CAD is little changed near the top of its year-to-date range, with conditions favoring a minor Canadian dollar rebound as risk sentiment improves.
EUR/USD Sell Trade Hits +45 Pip Target
A EUR/USD sell trade entered at 1.1647 reached its target, yielding a 45-pip gain and 2.5% return.
Euro Weakens with USD Rally Despite Higher Eurozone Inflation
NBC National Bank Canada's analysts note the euro has declined alongside the broad USD rally, even as Eurozone inflation reaccelerates and pushes the ECB toward a more hawkish stance.
Rabobank: JGB Policy Shifts Could Influence Japanese Yen
Rabobank's senior FX strategist Jane Foley notes that potential Bank of Japan changes to JGB purchases and rate hikes may impact the yen's outlook.
China's Trade Surplus Widens to $105.4B in May, Yuan Supported – SocGen
Societe Generale highlights that China's trade surplus widened to $105.4 billion in May, driven by a 19.4% year-on-year surge in exports, notably from AI-related sectors. The data supports the Chinese yuan's strength.
Bank Indonesia Hikes 25bps Off-Cycle to Support Rupiah
Bank Indonesia delivered an unscheduled 25 basis point rate hike to 5.50% following a prior surprise 50bps move, causing USD/IDR to retreat sharply from a record high, according to BBH’s Elias Haddad.
RBC: Canada in Early-Stage Recovery, GDP Contractions Not a Recession
RBC economist Claire Fan argues recent Canadian GDP contractions do not indicate a recession, citing population growth distortions and support from the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council.
BNP Paribas: Euro gaining safe haven status with structural boosters
BNP Paribas strategists argue that Europe is emerging as an alternative safe haven, with the Euro gaining ground as a global safe asset.
US Private-Sector Hiring Cools, 4-Week Average at 29K
The latest ADP employment data shows a 4-week average of 29,000 new private-sector jobs per week in late May, indicating a slowdown in hiring.
Dollar Stalls Near 100.00 as Tensions Ease, Says MUFG
The US Dollar has stalled after the Dollar Index met resistance near 100.00, as Middle East tensions eased and oil prices retreated, according to MUFG's Lee Hardman.
Canadian Dollar Weakest Reserve Currency as Growth, Spreads Weigh – NBC
National Bank of Canada analysts point to Canada's deteriorating real growth, negative 2-year spreads vs. the U.S., and falling gold as factors driving the Canadian Dollar to its weakest among reserve currencies, with USD/CAD near 1.39.
Gold Holds Near 2.5-Month Low as Upside Capped Below $4,360
Gold (XAU/USD) trades nearly flat near two-and-a-half-month lows at $4,268 on Tuesday, with gains limited below the $4,360 level despite a softer US dollar.
US Dollar Index Slumps to Near 99.75 on Iran Deal Hopes
The US Dollar Index fell to about 99.75 during European trading as renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
BoJ May Pause JGB Purchase Cuts After March 2027, BNY Reports
BNY's Bob Savage reports Bank of Japan officials consider pausing further JGB purchase reductions after March 2027, keeping near ¥2.1tn. The June meeting is expected to deliver a rate hike.
Australian Dollar Underperforms as RBA Rate Hike Fears Wane
The Australian Dollar is trading lower against most major peers during European hours on Tuesday, despite a slight 0.15% gain versus the US Dollar, as expectations for further RBA rate hikes recede.
BBH: Yield Spreads Point to AUD/USD Downside Near 0.7050
Brown Brothers Harriman notes AUD/USD consolidation around 0.7050, with yield spreads suggesting further downside risk.
Japanese Yen Weakens Despite BoJ Rate Hike Expectations
The Japanese Yen remains under pressure, trading above 160.00 against the US Dollar even as markets anticipate a rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
GBP/USD Edges Higher to 1.3390 as Weaker Dollar Supports, but UK Risks Cap Gains
GBP/USD rose to 1.3390 on Tuesday, up 0.42%, driven by a weaker US dollar after confirmed direct attacks between Israel and Iran, though gains remain limited by UK political and growth risks.
Markets Eye ECB Hike and SpaceX IPO; Indonesia Raises Rates
European markets are subdued as traders await the ECB rate decision and the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Meanwhile, Indonesia's central bank has raised rates in an emergency move.
EUR/GBP Testing Two-Week Lows at 0.8630 as Bearish Pressure Grows
The euro weakened against the pound on Tuesday, with sellers targeting the 0.8630 support area, marking two-week lows and increasing bearish momentum.