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AUD Rallies on Peace Deal Missing One Signature
The Australian Dollar rallied on Thursday, climbing above 0.7000 as a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran remains incomplete, lacking one final signature.
Commerzbank: Oil Shock and Reserve Strategy Impact Yuan
USD/CNY is near 6.78, with the PBoC model implying a slightly stronger fixing. China's domestic oil reserve tapping is affecting the Yuan.
EUR/USD Rises Toward 1.1600 on Iran Peace Hopes, but RSI Stays Bearish
The EUR/USD pair surged over 0.36% as the US dollar weakened after President Trump canceled strikes on Iran, citing progress on a peace agreement. Despite the rally, the RSI remains in bearish territory.
US Dollar Retreats from Ten-Week High as ECB Outlook Weighs on Euro
The US Dollar Index fell sharply to 99.60 after hitting a three-month high, as profit-taking offset stronger-than-expected Core PPI data. The Euro came under pressure from ECB policy outlook.
Bank of Thailand Sees No Need for Emergency Meeting on Baht Weakness
The Bank of Thailand rejects the need for an emergency policy meeting, stating the baht has only modestly weakened amid the U.S.–Iran conflict, with strong external buffers and signs of returning inflows to long-term bonds.
UOB Maintains Mildly Positive USD/SGD View, Eyes 1.2900
UOB FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a mildly bullish stance on USD/SGD, targeting a test of 1.2900 in the near term with 1.2915 as a tougher resistance. They see gains intact as long as the pair holds above 1.2830.
US Dollar Index Retreats from Two-Month High After Trump Cancels Iran Strikes
The US Dollar Index trimmed gains on Thursday after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, pulling back from a two-month high.
Commerzbank: South Korea Tightens FX Oversight to Steady Won
Commerzbank notes South Korean authorities have intensified FX monitoring, including more frequent reviews of banks' FX positions and joint inspections with the Bank of Korea, aiming to stabilize the Korean Won. USD/KRW consolidates near 1,520 after hitting its highest level in years.
Gold Rebounds from Six-Month Low on Trump Threat, Middle East Tensions
Gold (XAU/USD) trimmed earlier losses and turned positive on Thursday, rising 0.58% as US-Iran exchanges of fire dimmed hopes for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict. The metal traded near $4,091 after hitting a six-month low.
MUFG: Thai Baht Vulnerable to Energy Shock, High Oil Prices
MUFG strategist Lloyd Chan warns that the Thai Baht is particularly exposed to prolonged Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices due to Thailand's large net oil and gas deficit, weakening terms of trade, and low domestic yields.
UOB Keeps Neutral Stance on USD/CNH, Sees Consolidation in Tight Range
UOB maintains a neutral view on USD/CNH, expecting intraday consolidation between 6.7760 and 6.7880 and a broader range of 6.7620–6.7980 over the next 1–3 weeks.
Commerzbank: Tech Outflows, Inflation Weigh on Taiwan Dollar
Commerzbank reports that USD/TWD has risen for five consecutive sessions to 31.68, driven by foreign equity outflows amid global tech stock corrections, while Taiwan's CPI has moved above the central bank's 2% target.
USD/JPY Stays Near 160.50 as Intervention Fears Cap Gains
The Japanese yen remains pinned near 160.50 against the US dollar as traders weigh the risk of official intervention against a stronger greenback fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions.
AUD/USD Hits Two-Month Low After US PPI Beat, Jobless Claims
The Australian Dollar weakened to a two-month low against the US Dollar after hotter-than-expected US PPI data and steady jobless claims bolstered the greenback.
Standard Chartered: China's Export Prices Still Damp Global Inflation
Standard Chartered economists note that higher oil and AI-related goods prices have lifted China's import prices and PPI, ending multi-year deflation, but export prices remain a dampener on global inflation.
British Pound Falls as US PPI Reflects Iran Conflict Impact
The British Pound slipped 0.19% on Thursday after the US Producer Price Index showed the effect of the Iran war on energy prices, fueling a US Dollar rebound and oil recovery.
BBH Sees CAD Downside Risk as BoC Holds Rate at 2.25%
Brown Brothers Harriman reports that the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting, signaling no urgency to hike and supporting downside risk for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
USD/JPY Steady but Elevated, Pressure Toward 162 – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists note USD/JPY remains elevated with pressure toward the 162 level, as a BoJ rate hike is widely expected this week.
SNB Expected to Hold Rate at 0.00% on June 18 – Nomura
Nomura analysts predict the Swiss National Bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at the upcoming June 18 meeting, citing low inflation and mixed economic data.
ING: One Summer Hike Likely for BoE as UK Economy Softens
ING economist James Smith notes a softer UK backdrop compared to 2022, with falling vacancies, rising unemployment, and slowing wage growth, indicating the Bank of England is torn between a prolonged pause and a symbolic rate hike this summer.
Scotiabank: USD/CAD Eyes 1.40–1.41 on CAD Weakness
Scotia strategists note renewed Canadian dollar weakness as softer oil prices and geopolitical concerns push USD/CAD toward a 1.40–1.41 range, setting new year-to-date highs.
Deutsche Bank Sees UK Inflation Risks Climbing Through 2027
Deutsche Bank expects UK headline CPI to rise to 3.01% in May, with core at 2.72% and services at 3.65%. The bank projects CPI averaging 3.1% this year, easing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2028, with risks skewed to the upside.
RBA Likely to Keep Rates on Hold After Weak Data, Tax Changes – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists argue recent weak Australian data and federal budget tax changes should keep the RBA cash rate at 4.35% next week and likely on hold for an extended period.
Nomura: SNB to Emphasize FX Intervention Despite CHF Drop
Nomura’s European economics team expects the Swiss National Bank to maintain its emphasis on a high willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets, even as the Swiss franc has recently depreciated.